By the Numbers: Who is a second-half stud?

The All-Star Break ... it's a time to look back at the first half and take stock of our Fantasy GM skills. If you knew back in March that Nate McLouth, Ryan Ludwick and Joe Saunders were going to be All-Stars, I tip my cap to you. And if you foresaw that neither Prince Fielder nor Miguel Cabrera would even be in the conversation over All-Star roster spots, then I would really like to borrow your crystal ball. The Break is a great time to gloat over our best decisions, but past is past, and it's time to start thinking about where we can find value for the next 11 weeks of Fantasy play.

A lot has already been written on this site and others about the surprising performances of McLouth, Ludwick and Saunders. These players are All-Stars now, but whether they are truly All-Star caliber players is something only time can tell. Instead of focusing on current All-Stars, this week's analysis gives attention to players who were All-Stars just a year ago but haven't played like All-Stars in the first half. Anybody can have a bad half season, so who's to say these players won't perform like All-Stars for the next three months? To determine whether you can get All-Star value from this group, we will take a look at the skill stat trends for each player.

In typical around-the-horn fashion, we will start behind the plate ...

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Detroit: This year marks the first time in Pudge's Tiger career that he will not be on the AL All-Star team. His exclusion from the team actually has more to do with the emergence of Dioner Navarro and the diminishing of his reputation than with an actual decline in his productivity. He has only hit three homers to date, but his batting average is up, he is on pace to score more runs than last year and he has already stolen six bases. It's been years since Pudge was an elite, or even second-tier, catcher, but he will continue to have limited value as one of the better AL backstops for average and steals.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee: Fielder has been two different players this year. He has hit like his regular self at home, but is putting up Richie Sexson-like numbers on the road. There is no clear reason for this Jekyll-and-Hyde act, but at least Fielder is showing his expected level of power half of the time. He is too good of a hitter not to work this out, and he is a prime candidate for a big second half.

Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pittsburgh: What in the world has happened to Sanchez? Unlike Pudge, he has a lot more to fix than just his power game. All of his indicators are down from his batting championship season two years ago. Sanchez is the victim of an H/BIP rate that should be four or five percentage points higher, but even with better luck, he wouldn't be much more than a .250 hitter. A post-All-Star Break bounceback is not out of the question, but a .300 average in the second half looks very unlikely at this point.

Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit: For a player who has developed as steadily as Cabrera has, this year's regression to his worst numbers since his rookie season is a real head-scratcher. When you factor in his newfound protection in a potent Tiger lineup and the fact that he is still just 25, it makes his 2008 numbers all the more puzzling. Behind the depressed Fantasy numbers (.282-13-50-40) is an Isolated Power average that has dropped 23 percent since last year. Theories abound as to the source of Miggy’s problems -- adjustment to the AL, poor conditioning, complacency -- but hitters this young and this productive rarely just fall off the map. Whatever the reason for the power shortage, odds are good that it will be addressed in the second half.

Michael Young, SS, Texas: With his current .292 average, Young is on target to have his first sub-.300 season since 2002. Batting average aside, he is having about as good a season overall as he did last year, and there is no discernible dropoff in his skill stats. If he is to raise his batting average, Young needs increase his ground ball-to-flyball ratio to his more typical levels, because his current rate is a drag on H/BIP, which in turn is keeping his average down. Given that his usual M.O. is to be more of a ground ball hitter, we can expect these rates to increase in the second half. As a result, Young could wind up with a nice little season, hitting around .310 with 15 homers and 100-plus RBI and runs.

The shortstop we should really be talking about here is Derek Jeter, but I can't help it that the fans voted him in again. Suffice it to say that Jeter's skill numbers, other than whiff rate, are horribly off their norms and he does not look like a good bet for a second half turnaround.

Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets: Beltran's up-and-down Mets career is down again this year, though not as much as you might think. The only Fantasy stat that is significantly down from the last couple of seasons is his home run total, which stands at 13. His power, however, is far from gone, as he is on pace to hit a career-high 40 doubles. He is also on pace to score and knock in over 110 runs. Even if Beltran's power numbers don’t rebound, he is still an upper-tier outfielder who should be rostered in any format.

Torii Hunter, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Hunter is having the exact same problem as Fielder. While he seems to enjoy hitting in his new home ballpark, he just can't get it going on the road. How's this for eerie? Fielder is hitting .227 in away games with three home runs; Hunter's road average is .227 with two home runs. Hunter's Isolated Power has been historically right around .200, so the last two years have been a bit of an aberration. That also means this season's performance is not as off the mark as it initially looks. If he can heat up on the road just a little, Hunter should get back on track for a typical season, hitting around .275 with 20-25 homers.

Alex Rios, OF, Toronto: We have another ex-All-Star experiencing a power outage, and this one is severe. It's not all bad, because Rios has suddenly become a stolen base machine. It's as if he woke up one morning and he learned he was Carl Crawford, but without the good lineup or the neck tattoo. If Rios can rediscover his power, he would be one potent Fantasy force -- one that Crawford owners would envy. Until then, he is best left on reserves or the Scout Team for mixed league owners.

And warming up in the bullpen ...

Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit: Verlander's All-Star chances were probably cooked by the end of April, when he had a 1-4 record and a 6.50 ERA. He has steadily improved since then, and his ERA is all the way down to 4.34. While that ERA won't impress many mixed league owners, they should note that his ERC is a tidier 3.85, so a correction could be coming. Verlander has pitched well over the last two months and there is every reason to expect that he will post Fantasy numbers in the second half that are on a par with last year's All-Star performance.

Jose Valverde, RP, Houston: If Verlander blew his All-Star bid over a half dozen starts in March and April, then Valverde probably squandered his in the course one series in Philadelphia. Take away his two appearances at Citizens Bank Park in mid-April when he gave up five earned runs in 1 1/3 innings, and he is the proud owner of a 3.05 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 ratio. In other words, Valverde has basically been the same pitcher this year as he was in his 2007 All-Star campaign, except for one horrid series. Valverde is on reserves or waivers in 13 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, so if you are in one of those leagues, he could be a very cheap source of good stats.

Focusing on first half statistics might be a popular method for fans and players to select an All-Star squad, but it’s not necessarily the best way to build your Fantasy team. This review of former All-Stars not only reminds us to look at longer-term trends, but also provides some potentially cheap acquisition targets. Players like Fielder, Cabrera, Young, Beltran, Verlander and Valverde have the makings for All-Star-like second halves, and you may be able to acquire them at less than All-Star prices.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.