After being dealt to the Jets last offseason, Fantasy owners figured Thomas Jones would be a cinch for at least six or seven touchdowns. After all, the Jets were coming off a 10-win season where their RB-by-committee totaled 15 scores on the ground.
Instead, Jones was battered behind an offensive line that regressed. Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson was pummeled in several games last year and the departure of veteran guard Pete Kendall was felt in nearly every game. The Jets were sacked 34 times in 2006; 53 times in 2007. And as for those 15 rush touchdowns Fantasy owners were banking on, the club totaled six ground scores -- and two were by quarterbacks. Jones had all of one rushing touchdown (two total) last year to go along with 1,119 rush yards and 217 receiving yards.
Posting his first sub-4.0 yards-per-carry average since leaving Arizona in 2002, Jones knew that he the Jets would have to make two very specific moves this offseason for him to remain a key figure in the offense. One; they had to improve their offensive line, and two; they had to not draft Darren McFadden with their first-round pick.
They did, and they didn't.
One of the first splashes in free agency this spring was made when the Jets signed All-Pro left guard Alan Faneca to a four-year, $32 million contract. The transaction smacks of when the Browns signed left guard Eric Steinbach a year ago to aid their offensive line (they also have a young left tackle), and Jamal Lewis wound up posting some incredible stats. Fantasy owners hope the same thing happens with Jones in New York.
And not only did the Jets not draft McFadden, they didn't draft a running back at all, meaning that Jones is still on top of the depth chart.
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Thomas Jones should bounce back after a disappointing first year in New York.
(US Presswire)
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Positives: Jones has topped 1,300 total yards in each of his last four seasons and averaged over seven TDs on the ground in the three campaigns prior to last year's touchdown drought. Expectations should remain high, especially with the additions on the O-line and the Jets' suspect passing game forcing them to run more. Jones will still share the ball with
Leon Washington, but he did that last year and still topped 300 carries. And in stops with the Cardinals and Bears, Jones improved in his second year with each franchise.
Negatives: Jones will be the dreaded 30 years of age when the season starts. While that won't scare off all owners because Jones has just 1,659 career carries to his name, it will be a factor when you debate between him and, say, Jonathan Stewart in drafts. It's also not so good that he plays in the AFC East, where if not for two games against Miami last year, Jones would have had zero rushing touchdowns and a sub-1,000-rush-yard season. In fact, Jones averaged 41.5 rush yards and 18.25 receiving yards in four games against the Bills and Patriots last season. Not only are those units expected to be better against the run in 2008, but so is Miami's (who the Jets play in Weeks 1 and 17).
Outlook: Faneca's arrival should ultimately boost Jones' numbers when he runs outside and Faneca pulls with him or takes a pass into the flat. He should also help out at the goal line, where Jones can run behind him and burrow into pay dirt. Frankly, we don't feel like there's much to worry about with Jones, and that coupled with his weak 2007 should see him fall to owners in Round 4 in drafts this summer. He should come close to 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns -- more if the Jets' pass attack steps up -- and serve as a low-end No. 2/top-end No. 3 Fantasy RB.
Position battle: No. 1 quarterback
 | Kellen Clemens
Pro: He's got the backing of the coaching staff and a solid knowledge of Brian Schottenheimer's system. After a year of getting his feet wet, Clemens hopes to follow in the footsteps of many other quarterbacks who make the jump from mediocrity to meaningful in their second year under center. He also has a stronger arm than Chad Pennington, who is also vying for the starting gig.
Con: Last year's statistics are painful to look at. Clemens had two games with at least 250 passing yards, five touchdowns spread over eight starts and seven games with at least one interception. The more we review Clemens, the more he appears to be a caretaker and safe-pass maker than anything else, which kills his Fantasy value. |
 | Chad Pennington
Pro: Despite starting fewer games and attempting just 10 more passes than Clemens, Pennington completed more passes for a much higher percentage, tossed more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than his QB counterpart. Pennington has done well under center for the Jets over much of his career, completing at least 63 percent of his passes in five seasons where he's started at least eight games.
Con: The Jets desperately want Clemens to reach his potential, and even though the club didn't trade Pennington when they had the chance this offseason, they're not keen on him starting the majority of games. Additionally, Pennington is very injury prone; an ankle sprain hobbled him last year and previous shoulder and wrist injuries have sidelined his seasons prematurely. | | Prediction: The offense tended to respond better to Pennington in the past, but the fact that the club wants Clemens to play forces this competition. We expect Clemens to win out come September, but both quarterbacks will play in '08, effectively limiting the upside one can expect from either passer. Since that is the case, neither one is worth drafting this summer. | |
Position battle: No. 3 wide receiver
 | Brad Smith
Pro: Smith is an athletic player entering his third year at wide receiver, which is always worth noting since receivers tend to make strides in their third year. He scored his first two NFL touchdowns last season and had seven games with at least three receptions.
Con: While Smith has the size to be a nice target for the Jets, he's never reflected his speed into his numbers (10.2 yards per catch average last year). Though he's always a threat to run or even pass (he's a converted quarterback), he's never been a reliable Fantasy option. Adding to his woes is an unspecified injury that limited him in the club's OTAs. |
 | Chansi Stuckey
Pro: Stuckey will enter training camp as the No. 3 receiver after making strides earlier this offseason. He's your typical speedy slot receiver who the club hopes acts as a solid complement to Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, both of whom cannot be considered track-fast any longer. Stuckey also made a huge impression with his study habits last year after he was placed on IR.
Con: Stuckey missed his rookie campaign with a broken foot, which he broke previously while in college. That's cause for concern, as is his lack of ever playing in a regular-season NFL game. Even if he does make the cut, there's no guarantee he'll get even 500 yards. | | | Marcus Henry
Pro: Henry is a tall, lanky receiver who the Jets hope to develop into a good player, perhaps a possession receiver. Henry averaged 18.8 yards per catch his senior year at Kansas and doesn't have to try and accelerate his learning curve this season.
Con: Receivers often fail to make a mark in their rookie season, and Henry should be no exception. With average speed, chances are that Henry will have to really impress in training camp to get a regular piece of the offensive action. | | Prediction: Stuckey will win the job if he stays healthy thanks to his speed and off-the-field dedication, but Smith will have some value, too. In fact, if something were to happen to Coles or Cotchery, Smith would be a solid sleeper in Fantasy drafts. | |
Position battle: No. 1 tight end
 | Chris Baker
Pro: Baker is the incumbent starter for the Jets and was third on the team in receptions last season. While he's not a statsheet stuffer, Baker has developed into a short-area target good for at least 30 grabs a year with some touchdowns sprinkled in. He's also been a Jet for his entire six-year career.
Con: Baker has just about every 'con' you can think of. He's bitter over his contract situation and wants a new deal. He's dealing with a sore back after getting hurt during a minicamp practice. He'll be 29 in November, and he's never been anything better than a one-week replacement in Fantasy Football. |
 | Dustin Keller
Pro: The Jets drafted the athletic receiving tight end out of Purdue with a first-round pick they traded up to get. That alone suggests that the coaching staff has designs on using him on offense. Keller's a smart, big target who should catch a reasonable amount of passes as a rookie and line up all over the field, including at H-back.
Con: Like any rookie receiver, growing pains are to be expected. The last 'phenom' rookie tight end, Vernon Davis, is a guy Fantasy owners are still waiting to see produce. Keller also isn't a polished blocker, which will limit his reps and almost certainly wipe him out from first downs and short second downs.
| | Prediction: So long as he's on the team, Baker will play more. However, we expect Keller to rack up more stats since he's the faster and more versatile option of the two. Only Keller is worth a draft pick, though it's no better than a late-round choice. | |
